A long overdue update on the Brazilianand South African economy. I included some Belgian figures for the sake of comparison. You can download the original presentation on Slideshare.
It goes without saying that I'm extremely sceptical on the South African prospects for 2009 and 2010. As I've written many times before, from Q2 2009 you'll be able to buy into unseen real estate bargains in South Africa. The prices will further plummet and the South African rand will remain low. It's hard to predict however when the uptake will then happen. Although the prospects of Africa as a continent are not at all bad; South Africa is really structurally ill and it will take a while to heal.
As to my biggest worry: the freefloat currency mess, which was my main concern as to the Brazilian Economy in a short term, the Real moved back to pre-crisis patterns. I wrote extensively end September and beginning October how unique the chance was to buy into Reals. The BRL is now again in the 0,35 - 0,375 bracket against to the EU; which is still sound enogh to buy into. When the Reals would move again up above 0,375 to the Euro, I would gold my horses. When the currency would leave that level however, the Banco Central will probably level off the selic intrest rate somewhat. Personally I hope however that move will be taken later than sooner.
Any opinions, input or considerations on the state of the economy in Brazil and South Africa?
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Nov 2 2008
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