Just had an excange with Bart Becks and Robin Wauters on Twitter on the 2009 foresights of the US.
I share the recent views of Nouriel Roubini and Peter Schiffer. The US recession will last two years. GDP will fall with a total of 5%, which is absolutely massive. Only in 2009, the US GDP will fall with 3,4%, declining every quarter of 2009. Unemployment will reach 9% by 2010. And housing prices will fall on average 44% from their 2007 until mid 2010. Only then will they stabilize and slowly, very slowly grow again. But it will take until far beyon 2015 before they will reach 2007 levels again. Even if Obama dances the Samba, those effects would only be felt by 2010.
And then we didn't even talk about the possible risk of a fierce US$ devaluation...
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Jan 10 2009
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