Mar 8 2008

Brazil in the new world economic balance

By John Baeyens | Share This Brazil

These are crucial times for Brazil.  I already posted that Brazil became the top emerging country and reported on the real estate growth potentials.
Until now Brazil is handling the impact of the subprime crisis with confidence and prudence.  The Brazilian stocks remain healthy with a good growth potential throuygh 2008, and the consensus among economists in Brazil is that the country is in great shape to handle the turbulence ahead.  Even the economists keeps writing on the decoupling scenario.

Brazil's international reserves have reached 188 billion US$, with a debt totalling 4 billion US$.  Add to that the potentiual of Brazil's economy with the recent discovery of large oil fields, discovering Brazil's guarantee for auto-sufficiency in the need for energy in the medium term.  Crucial, if you know that by 2030 the BRIC countries will consume more energy than the developing countries.  2030, that's in 20 years from here, I'll be 55 then.  Imagine what it will be like to work and live in Belgium by then? The recent increase in jobs and the minimum wage is also expending credit, which still has a huge potential of growth compared to the US, Europe and even South Africa.

Most economists still predict that the Brazilian will grow nearly 5% in 2008 and 4,5% in 2008.  The investment risk will be further reduced this year, which should attract even more amounts of foreign resources.  Personally I follow the study of FGV which expects a growth of 4,7% this year, which will still be more than 3 times the growth of Belgium in 2008.  And remember the impact of the devaluation of the US dollar on trade and this growth of 4,7% ! 

I truly believe that a new world economic balance is being formed in which Brazil is going to take a leading role.

Comments

  1. Peter Vandenabeele

    Peter Vandenabeele said:

    John,

    I see a lot of good things you say about Brazil ... but then I have the question why you still (or again actually) live in Belgium (for now ...).

    Peter

    Posted 17 years ago

  2. John Baeyens

    John Baeyens said:

    Peter,

    Many people ask me/us the same question lately. I should write a long post on it.

    There's a famous quote from the famous Brazilian musician Tom Jobim who co-wrote "The Girl From Ipanama". Translated the quote is: "Brazil is not for beginners".

    I went to Brazil in2004 and stayed there from October 2005 till January 2007. In 2005 I already believed in Brazil's fundaments; only now the true potential of it becomes obvious to everyone.

    It took me two years to master Portuguese and sort the residency, bank accounts, local company structures, learning the local tax system,... These were frustrating times, believe me. Only people who set sail to Brazil will understand me.

    It's only now that the dimensions of the problems (problems that go beyond cyclical) in the Western world become so blatant obvious that I realize that these two years were the best investment I ever made. Realizing that my children will have a double nationality and speak fluently Dutch (mostly folkloric), English and Portuguese is a reassuring one.

    My wife and I both want to have a double nationality and for that Simone will have to stay 3 years in Belgium (1 and a half to go). This is one of the reasons why we are here. The other reasons are mainly 'infrastructural'. I don't believe in the theory of the 4h workweek of Nomad Timothy Ferriss. I believe globalists need more than anyone else a solid 'back office'.

    And the judge is also still out on 'the place' where life is best in Brazil. A very complex call. The tendency goes South from Rio. Gert can explain you why (he lives in Fortaleza): http://www.emigrant.be/blog/heimwee-naar-je-land/

    Posted 17 years ago

  3. Gert Leroy

    Gert Leroy said:

    "Brazil is not for beginners" hehe.. i liked that.. If you can handle Brazil you can handle the world !!

    John, right on: best place to live in Brazil: a complex call.. This is an issue that even Brazilians struggle with.. many people i know have lived in various cities yet, it's like they keep on travelling their whole life..

    Correction: i don't live in Fortaleza, i live in Natal. Anyway, not that much difference.

    Posted 17 years ago

  4. John Baeyens

    John Baeyens said:

    I actually have a sweater with the quote broidered on...

    I'll try to write a post on what my ideal Brazilian town/village should look like.

    Natal/Fortaleza: there's Sao Miguel de Touros in between. And once in Natal, Tamandaré is not so far away. Actually, Tamandaré would be close to my ideal place for weekends.

    Posted 17 years ago

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