After Iceland, the risk of Russia defaulting increased dramatically the last days. I know, Argentina is also on the list, but hasn't Argentina always been on the list? The Brazilian exposure to Brazil is minimal though.
There is actually a rumor that the Russian government is about to devalue the Ruble, hence the massive runs on Russian banks; Russians do remember the 1998 August crisis.
This tool of the Deutsche Bank shows the default probability of Emerging Countries. Brazil is, together with Mexico on the lower hand. Too bad countries like South Africa, Romania or Argentina are not included; anybody? It would also be good to have countries like Belgium, Spain, Italy or France included for the sake of comparison; the findings would be shocking.