Nov 6 2008

South African Rand in 2009 and 2010

By John Baeyens | Share This South Africa

Currently the ZAR trades at 9,845 against the  USD. Bloomberg just posted a report in which they estimate the ZAR could trade at 8,4 against 1 USD in 2009 and 7,42 against 1 USD in 2010.  This would mean that the ZAR would gain 24% from now till end 2010 (read: some months after the election of Zuma as the new SA president).  I follow the Bloomberg line of thinking.  With some considerations through the fluctuations through 2008 and 2009 though.  The volatility in the coming months will be extreme. Especially since I suspect that (1) the inflation in South Africa will remain well above 13% in October (results not yet published, they are kind of slow in SA publicising inflation index figures), November and Q1 2009.  The fact that the SAR plummeted recently, fuels the SA inflation.
So, I think you will have various buying opportunities to get into the ZAR today.  I believe the chance for a +20% currency gain by end 2010 is very likely.   Just make sure you have an iron stomach when the SA Reserve bank decides to lower their intrest rate from the current 15,5% any time soon, you'll see the Rand fall down to historic lows. 



The question then of course remains what the USD will do against the EUR by 2010. Still around 1,25 EUR for 1 USD?  Higher / Lower?  Much harder to do predictions on that one.

 

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