A very interesting discussion on which BRIC countries will be most affected by the crisis on Linkedin. This view of Larry Cristini, Political Risk Consultant at Eurasia Group is an extremely intelligent answer on the question:
Emerging markets in general can be broken down into two groups:
1) those unable and/or unwilling to respond effectively to the crisis; and
2) those in a stronger position to take action (presumably because of healthy macroeconomics and internal politics before the crisis).
The key is to assess the external drivers of the financial crisis and the domestic political drivers—this determines whether the country has the wherewithal to respond effectively.
China is very much in the latter, in the best position b/c of a strong fiscal position, cheaper oil imports, and a well insulated financial market. A lower GDP to debt ratio allows them to step in with a large stimulus package. Social unrest, although a growing concern as we all know, is unlikely to cause destabilization in the medium term.
Brazil although facing falling growth and inflationary pressures that limit the use of monetary policy, is also in a good position with a falling debt to GDP ration and has a government capable (and able due to widespread support) of creating sound counter-cyclical fiscal policies. A somewhat diversified export base outside of just commodities and an economy somewhat insulated with strong domestic demand eases things. Again a good domestic political situation helps here.
India, dependent on global demand for its tech and outsourcing sectors is in trouble and the government’s fiscal deficit means it doesn’t have the latitude to implement wide-ranging fiscal packages. High unemployment and upcoming elections complicate matters politically.
Russia is in the worst position because of the hit from capital flight last year, falling oil prices, and a heavily indebted corporate sector. The government’s hands are tied here due to the loss of export generated revenue and evaporating credit. Politically, although the government currently has strong support, social unrest is a fear as the economy continues to deteriorate through 2009-2010.
PORTLAND, Ore. – A top Vatican formal who rarely oversees the berth that handles cases of avowed censure by priests decidedly returned an accused woman of the cloth to administrative charge in Oregon on the stipulation that he be barred from direct contact with children or teenagers.
As archbishop in Portland from 1986 to 1995, Important William Levada removed Father Joseph Baccellieri in 1992 after learning almost 20-year-old complaints involving teenage boys but allowed him to return on a meagre infrastructure protection terminate supervision in 1994.
The emigrate had conditions, according to a the humanities released Saturday in defense of Levada. The archdiocese's clergy personnel pilot outlined a plan approved close to Levada that prohibited Baccellieri from having reach with children or teenagers.
Other conditions included interminable counseling and group therapy, hebdomadal reporting via his therapist to the archdiocese, tiny monitoring, limitations on bureau activities and restrictions on living limit a parish setting or below the supervision of other priests.
Levada explained his decidedness not to advertise any parishioners in a 2006 deposition to attorneys handling dozens of lawsuits against the archdiocese claiming objurgate by Oregon priests.
http://it.twojpecet.com/ktora-bielizna-wyszczuplajaca-jest-najlepsza-do-cwiczenia-na-silowni
Posted 15 years ago